Howdy all-
A lot of people are thinking hard now about treatment, as am I, because of Pegasys being available.
Well doing a little simple math [no such thing as simple math for me, he he], taking the good old USA, for example, the people with HCV is now nearing 3.000.000.000, thats three million people, and thats three million confirmed cases, now there is probebaly at least a third more that do not know they even have HCV, thats another million.

A lot of people say that if you have HCV, you will probebly die with HCV, not from HCV, and that only only 2-3 percent will die from HCV.

Now with that math thing, let's just take the approx three millon divided by approx three percent= 10.000- thats ten thousand people will die from HCV related causes in the USA,- now they already say that many die each year in North America from HCV related causes.

To me that is a lot of people, now if you are one of those ten thousand people, it does not matter if only two people in that three million were going to die, if you are one of them - thats too many people, everyone thinks it will happen to someone else.

There are factors that muliply your odds of being on of the ten thousand-
-AGE-
- even if the HCV does not progress,the symtoms get worse on many, weakens your immune system, causes other infections and problems, if you contacted HCV over fourty studies say HCV progress extreme fast compared to most, also as you age, even if your HCV is not active and you are healthly, when you do weaken from other factors, the HCV will progress and compound.

-GENDER-
-If you are male, studies say you are more likly to progress faster, female respond better to treatments, males do not respond to treatment as well and as males get older that percentage drops even more.

-GENOTYPE-
As we all know,us North Americans are mostly genotype 1-A's which are hardest to treat, componded with that is DURATION, most are finding we have been infected for 20 years, the more years we are infected, the lower the percentage of respounding to treatment.

other factors -Weight, Race, viral loads, etc.

As one wise person here on treatment stated, there are odds you can live your life with HCV, BUT I would rather not, and I think everyone here would rather Not be one of the ten thousand that will die.

I am 47 yrs, male, been infected almost twenty years, I am very healthy now but can feel the effects draging me down each year I get older, so treating now while I am healthy, before I get any older is logical,

Doing my research, I beleive that like AIDS, there will be no easy vaccine soon, because both are very complex virus's, and if they came up with one vaccine it would not work on all Genotypes,as it mutates into different strains, 1A will be the hardest.

wholly rambling on, I do not know if I am tring to convince others or myself, but these are a FEW factors why I decided to treat now.
-INPUT???
until then Be Well +



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--Get Outdoors-Enjoy Life----Neil

Hi Neil; I am now 64 and contracted HCV from BT 19 years ago at age 43. I am reasonbly sure since liver enzymes began to be slightly elevated at physical exams beginning a couple of years later. I am interested in reading the full studies you mention concerning age and HCV progression. BTW, I tried Peg/Intron and could not handle the side effects. Biopsy shows mild inflamation, no fibrosis. ... thanx

There are so many more factors involved than this, drinking behavior and gender being just two of them.

Try to remember that those who are most at risk of death are those who have NOT made lifestyle adjustments because they either were not diagnosed early enough ( or at all)or continued to drink and neglect health anyway. With the number of folks in prison and on the street with HCV, it shouldn't come as a surprise that people are dying of ignorance and lack of access to good education and good nutrition,lack of recovery programs and mental health counselling or medical care.

Livers are in short supply for those on transplant lists who might live otherwise. People are dying due organ shortage as much as anything also.

If we don't get our prevention strategies in order and a better system of organ donation (presumed consent, for example), this is going to continue.

The number is of HCV positive people is greater than 3 million. Probably more like five million, minimum in the USA alone. Only about 10-15 percent of patients have been diagnosed, if that many.

In some people, we do not know how many, treatment does nothing. What treatment actually does is still not well understood, either.

You can also apply those numbers to the low rates of sexual transmission and mother to child transmission, which are more than double the numbers you came up with. While percentage is low, numbers are high.

I have no advice or comment for your personal decision. This is intended as general information and comment for continued pondering.

thanbey

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www.hcop.org (http://www.hcop.org)
preapproved by moderator1

[This message has been edited by thanbey (edited 12-12-2002).]

Crybabytoo-
There is information in the book under the post I put in yesterday under "Exellent HCV reading" every thing I had read on age progression has been here, there and everywhere, I will check my files, and see if I can not point you toward more info- -until then be well-


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--Get Outdoors-Enjoy Life----Neil