I have thought about this before and now that it has come up again I must ask.....

Just how does anyone know how many cases of hepC are out there?

Of course, there is some statistical thingy projecting these numbers but what is it based on?

Thanby says something like 5,000,000 cases with less than a third diagnosed. Well, if they ain't diagnosed maybe they don't exist right?

I just don't understand how people can be so confident in these huge numbers. Where are the facts to back them up?

Just curious is all.
erk

The most widely quoted data on the prevalence of HCV in the USA are derived from the 3rd National Health and Nutrition Examination Survery (NHANES) a national survery of a representative sample of non-institutionalized civilian Americans (meaning no prison inmates or people in detention, no mental patients, no military personnel) between 1988 and 1994. Of note is the fact that young children, minorities,military personnel, inmates and the elderly are not represented in this study. If memory serves, the age range is 6-60.

Of 21,000 people tested for HCV, 1.8% carried antibodies against the virus of whom 74% had detectable RNA in their serum.

The numbers project to 3.9 million Americans exposed to the virus and 2.7 million with ongoing chronic infection, based on the 1990 census.

Since that time, we have had another census in 2000. The USA population is now officially 285 million people. That puts the numbers much higher if we still use the (inadequate, in my opinion, because key population groups were left out of the original study) 1.8% as a factor to determine the infection rates.

If we project the new population of 285 million, we get the rates at 7 million and 5 million (approximately) using the year 2000 census figures.

The NHANES study is being repeated and the results will be available in a few years.

The need for routine testing is more critical than ever. We are really not going to have a really good measure of new infection if people are not being tested. And, people will not have choices regarding lifestyle choices that may prevent progression, alcohol and smoking being two of those choices.

I hope this helps,

thanbey
www.hcop.org (http://www.hcop.org)

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www.hcop.org (http://www.hcop.org)
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www.hcop.org (http://www.hcop.org)
preapproved by moderator1