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Old 06-27-2011, 10:40 AM   #1
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Chances? Any Insight Welcome!

Hello. I have a statistical question.

What are the chances a 40 year old who was diagnosed with end-stage, decompensated, class c cirrhosis can stay off the booze? He's been a raging alcoholic for 20+ years, has never had a break from it for more than 4-5 days, and has never gone to an AA meeting, a therapist, or any other treatment. He spent a month in the hospital, rejected rehab, lives alone, has no job, and his bills are all (still) being paid by his mother, who also gives him spending money.

I know it's slim at best, but I want to know if it's worth holding onto any hope at all.

Thanks.

 
Old 06-27-2011, 08:49 PM   #2
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Re: Chances? Any Insight Welcome!

Quote:
Originally Posted by YTREWQ View Post
Hello. I have a statistical question.

What are the chances a 40 year old who was diagnosed with end-stage, decompensated, class c cirrhosis can stay off the booze? He's been a raging alcoholic for 20+ years, has never had a break from it for more than 4-5 days, and has never gone to an AA meeting, a therapist, or any other treatment. He spent a month in the hospital, rejected rehab, lives alone, has no job, and his bills are all (still) being paid by his mother, who also gives him spending money.

I know it's slim at best, but I want to know if it's worth holding onto any hope at all.

Thanks.

I'm only answering this question because you asked from a statistical perspective...

I would say about the same odds of being the first person in history to perform a successful gender change operation on yourself with one arm tied behind your back on a roller coaster in winter with a blood alcohol level of 1.34 using tools created in China during the Ming dynasty on a friday.

Or about the same odds of Helen Keller winning AMERICAN IDOL and the title of SO YOU THINK YOU CAN DANCE in the same year.

And lastly, since I can only be silly once in a while....

Here goes.... I better not.

I would hope there is a chance if this is a real person you speak of. And the fact that you asked if there could possibly be a chance when this person seems absolutely helpless speaks volumes about the size of your heart.

Through all of this you are asking if this person "could change"... again, you haven't given up on this person and if anyone needs someone to care and to not give up on , it's this person. We can't always support only those who appear to be (for lack of a better term) an easy fix.

You have found the diamond in the rough and think, if you can help change this person, there's nothing you can't accomplish.

Good for you!

 
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Old 06-27-2011, 11:54 PM   #3
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Re: Chances? Any Insight Welcome!

Quote:
Originally Posted by YTREWQ View Post
What are the chances a 40 year old who was diagnosed with end-stage, decompensated, class c cirrhosis can stay off the booze?
I think this is your answer right here. If his health is deteriorating yet still continues to drink, there's not much more room for his bottom to be reached before death is the result.
Can he stay off the booze? Yes, anybody can. Does he want to...that's a different story. And it doesn't sound like he does.

For the sake of the question, statistically, the chance is very slim to none.
If this isn't a wake up call in the form of one's bottom, I don't see much else scaring 'em enough to want to stop.
Anything is possible though..

And I'm sorry to say that if this person is someone close to you, there's not much you can do for him. There's not much anybody can do for him. He has to want to stop. Only he can determine if and when he's ready to get sober.
There's this documentary that will give you a clearer picture of how severe and how terrifying alcoholism is. I hope I'm not breaking any rules here, but you can watch them on youtube. Its called "Rain in my heart". I think anybody who in any way is affected by alcoholism, should watch this.
It's very raw, very chilling. But very real and eye opening.

Good luck to you and best wishes for you and your loved ones.

 
Old 06-28-2011, 05:14 AM   #4
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Re: Chances? Any Insight Welcome!

Quote:
Originally Posted by YTREWQ View Post
Hello. I have a statistical question.

What are the chances a 40 year old who was diagnosed with end-stage, decompensated, class c cirrhosis can stay off the booze? He's been a raging alcoholic for 20+ years, has never had a break from it for more than 4-5 days, and has never gone to an AA meeting, a therapist, or any other treatment. He spent a month in the hospital, rejected rehab, lives alone, has no job, and his bills are all (still) being paid by his mother, who also gives him spending money.

I know it's slim at best, but I want to know if it's worth holding onto any hope at all.

Thanks.
Hello Y,

Statistics relate to variables....

What is the statistical probability of him receiving a liver transplant?

Leave out certain variables and that significantly manipulates the probability factor.

Statistically speaking....

Respectfully
Phoenix
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When in doubt, post it out.

Last edited by Phoenix; 06-28-2011 at 05:54 AM.

 
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