The odds are irrelevent. You either get it or you don't. The odds are higher (maybe over 50%?) if they are having an outbreak and lower if they aren't. If you are exposed to the virus, it has to find a way to enter into your skin and get in your blood. It can usually find a way in through tiny cuts in the skin you can't see.
Can Type 2 enter into the blood stream anywhere on the body and infect the person? That seems logical to me; however, most everything that I've read indicates that there has to be genital to genital contact.