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Old 11-06-2005, 10:14 PM   #2
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 332
Palamedes HB User
Re: For Lenin, Harry or any other statistics monger...

Originally Posted by Editor
For instance, I know that smokers are 50% more likely to get lung cancer than non smokers. But since lung cancer in the non-smoking population is about 5%, that means that it is about 8% in the smoking population. But the general idea we are given is smoking=lung cancer.
The risk is MUCH greater than you indicate. The data I've seen indicates that the risk is about 10 times greater for smokers (not 50%). This assumes a typical pack a day smoker. This risk goes up or down depending on the quantity smoked. Also, I don't believe that the non-smoking population has anywhere near a 5% chance of getting lunch cancer. For a non-smoker the rate is around 1 per 10,000 per year. I believe this factors to something less than 1%. Now, for a smoker (1 per 1000 per year), you're probably looking at something in the 5-10% range over a lifetime.