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  • Weight loss made simple: A statistical analysis of my weight program

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    Old 08-30-2003, 11:40 PM   #1
    stabmaster
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    Join Date: Aug 2003
    Location: Davis, Ca USA
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    stabmaster HB User
    Post Weight loss made simple: A statistical analysis of my weight program

    My mission is to prove to unbeleivers that there is no magic involved in weight loss. All diets do is steer you in the right direction with your eating habits. Other diets (pills, etc.) can only help you lose weight by indirectly affecting one of two variables. There is, generally, only 2 factors to consider if you want to pull off the weight. Energy intake and energy expenditure.

    My proof is in a 10 day weight loss program (it is only the begining, and will be expanded upon). The purpose of the experiment is to get a general idea of what the noise level in my daily weight measurements are. Furthermore, I have focused on comparing my energy intake and expenditures by calorie counting with my weight data measurements. What is the noise involved in each data entry? What is the error over a long period of time? If i am careful with my calorie counting, how accurately can i predict my weight loss? These questions are addressed here very breifly.

    Weight measurements were made 3 times a day on a scale accurate to +/-0.1 pounds (morning, afternoon, and night). All data was recorded on [url="http://www.******.com."]www.******.com.[/url] [url="http://www.******.com/WebFit/PublicJournals.html?Owner=stabmaster"]here[/url] is a link to all of my meals, excercise, and weight measurements. toppings and trimmings like salsa, cheese, cilantro, etc. were ignored. Activities like short drives, watching TV, or walking accross campus were ignored. It is hoped that these factors will cancel out, but there is no data here which addresses this.

    Lean body mass addition is also ignored over a 10 day period. Noise in the measurements are too high. It will, however, be considered over a longer time period when data is sufficient.

    [url="http://us.f1.yahoofs.com/users/2338cc7b/bc/__hr_Weight+Graph.jpg?bcNWpU_AG9ZLow1W"]GRAPH OF CALCULATED WEIGHT BY CALORIE COUNTING VS. ACTUAL WEIGHT[/url]

    Data analysis: the 3 weight measurements each day are averaged and this value is used as the weight measurement for the day. Linear regression was used on 2 days that i didnt' have access to my scale. For the calculated body mass predictions, a starting value selected was equal to the starting measurement. Each day the average over all energy consumption and energy expenditures were added up and averaged. The difference of the averages was calculated and, considering the number of days, plus that there is 3500 calories per pound of fat, a value for "calculated weight loss" was found for that day. Sorry if this is confusing, but the point is that these values are complete mathematical predictions based on the starting weight value.

    There is a lot of noise in the weight measurements compared to the straightened line resulting from calculations (due to the use of averages). A noteworthy result is that the weight loss predictions do not show a divergence over time (yet), suggesting that my calorie counting is very, very accurate.

    More statistical data is available. most is boring and rather meaningless with such few data points.

    Conclusion: calorie counting can be a very accurate way to meet distinct weight loss goals, design your weight loss program, and predict weight loss over periods of time as short as a week. if you have hit a plateau, you might want to hit up ******.com and try a little science. i'm not affiliated with that website; it has proved very useful to me so i felt that it would be a good idea to share.

    [This message has been edited by moderator2 (edited 08-31-2003).]

    [This message has been edited by stabmaster (edited 08-31-2003).]

     
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